[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 25 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed between 330 and 350 km/s and Bz mostly
stayed between +/-4 nT during this period. Nearly similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated
C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 0 11000000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 0 10000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 1 11000001
Gingin 1 11100010
Camden 1 11000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11000010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 2 21110011
Mawson 10 34210014
Davis 2 12200001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 5 Quiet
26 May 5 Quiet
27 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed on most
locations during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 May 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed in Aus/NZ
regions during the last 24 hours due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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