[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 15 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 9 09:30:34 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 8 May UT. AR 2339
produced nine C class flares including the largest flare of the
day, a C5.5 event peaking at 04:09 UT. This region has the potential
to produce an M class flare during the next 48 hours. No new
noteworthy filament eruptions or Earthward directed CMEs were
recorded during 8 May. Weak CMEs associated with Disappearing
Solar Filaments observed during 5 and 6 May might start impacting
Earth late today, 9 May. Coronal Hole (CH) 667 is traversing
the central meridian in the Southern Hemisphere. A Co-rotating
Interaction Region (CIR) ahead of fast wind emanating from CH
667 might impact Earth. For now, the solar wind speed has been
fluctuating in the approximate range 370-410 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF has been about 6 nT and the Bz component has been
weak, mostly in the range -3 nT to +3 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 5 23221100
Cocos Island 7 2-------
Darwin 4 23210001
Townsville 6 23221111
Learmonth 6 33311100
Alice Springs 4 23220000
Norfolk Island 4 12230000
Culgoora 6 22231111
Gingin 5 32221110
Camden 5 22231100
Canberra 4 12231000
Launceston 6 23232100
Hobart 5 23231000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 4 12032000
Casey 7 33321011
Mawson 16 54311214
Davis 10 33422111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2211 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 May 20 Active
11 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 7 May and is
current for 10 May only. Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled,
decreasing to quiet, during 8 May UT. Geomagnetic conditions
may become unsettled late today due to the arrival of a weak
CME associated with DSFs observed during 5 and 6 May. A CIR may
arrive ahead of the fast wind emanating from CH 667. There is
the possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm (G1) during 9-10
May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values in the Northern and Southern
Hemisphere today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 101
May 90
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio propagation were near predicted
monthly values at most locations throughout the Australian region
today, 8 May. They are expect to remain the same during 9 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 44200 K Bz: 9 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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