[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 15 issued 2349 UT on 30 Apr 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 1 09:49:37 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with just
a single C-class event, a C1.1 at 2108UT from a region on the
southwest limb. The solar wind speed increased from ~300km/s
at 04UT to range between 340km/s-360km/s from 07UT onwards. The
Bz component of IMF increased in magnitude, however from 07UT
onwards was predominantly northward with only a brief southward
excursion of -8nT between 16UT-17UT. This slight increase in
solar wind speed may be due to a small equatorial positioned
positive polarity coronal hole. Very Low to Low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11200011
Cocos Island 1 11100010
Darwin 2 11200011
Townsville 2 12100011
Learmonth 3 12200020
Alice Springs 1 1--00011
Norfolk Island 1 01100011
Culgoora 2 11-01011
Gingin 2 11200020
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 1 11100011
Launceston 2 12201010
Hobart 1 -1200010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 6 23310021
Mawson 12 42211052
Davis 7 22321032
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1001 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected over the next 2 days with possible
Unsettled periods due to coronal hole effects. Quiet conditions
expected for 03May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today for
mid to high latitudes. Periods of enhanced MUF's at low latitudes.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal during the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 99
Apr 90
May 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today over
AUS/NZ regions. Of note, variable ionospheric support observed
at Northern AUS regions with enhancements and minor depressions
at IPS Darwin and Townsville sites respectively during local
night. Similar levels of ionospheric support and near monthly
predicted MUF values expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 31200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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