[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 31 10:30:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with only minor C class
flares being produced. Solar wind speed was light ranging from
375km to 300km with the IMF Bz component remaining above -5nT.
Solar flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels for
the next three days. A coronal hole high speed wind stream is
expected to arrive at Earth on 2 April. LASCO C2 imagery showed
a partial halo CME first observed on 29/1836UT, it appears to
be due to activity on the farside of the Sun and therefore not
geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Cocos Island 3 12110012
Darwin 2 22100011
Townsville 3 22110012
Learmonth 3 22100012
Alice Springs 2 21100011
Norfolk Island 1 11000010
Culgoora 1 11110001
Gingin 2 -2100012
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 1 11000001
Launceston 2 11110011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 8 34211112
Mawson 9 33211024
Davis 6 23320011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3332 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 6 Quiet
01 Apr 6 Quiet
02 Apr 16 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet
for the next two days, however on day three expect the arrival
of a high speed solar wind stream to induce Active conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
expected to be around predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 25400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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