[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 15 issued 2344 UT on 22 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 23 10:44:49 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
two C1 flares, probably from beyond the east limb (N5), peaking
at 22/2140 UT and 22/2218 UT respectively. Region 2305 (S08E61)
grew strongly and several new regions appeared. A large filament
lifted from the northwest quadrant at around 15 UT; its direction
is yet to be determined. Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed reached a peak of 760
km/s and is now around 560 km/s. The IMF magnitude peaked at
14 nT and is currently 9 nT. The IMF Bz component had a southward
excursion to -8 nT between 05-07 UT and has been positive since
18 UT, currently +8 nT. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 22/1735UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 23543111
Cocos Island 14 23543110
Darwin 16 33543111
Townsville 18 33553111
Learmonth 19 33553211
Alice Springs 16 22553101
Norfolk Island 13 22543011
Culgoora 28 2-7-3111
Gingin 14 22543111
Camden 14 22543111
Canberra 14 22543111
Launceston 18 23544222
Hobart 15 23543211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 27 23646211
Casey 22 45543112
Mawson 35 34753242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Hobart 66 (Active)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 4233 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 20 Quiet to Active
24 Mar 15 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 21 March and
is current for 22-23 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions started quiet
to unsettled in the Australian region on 22-Mar. A period of
active to minor storm conditions occurred 09-12 UT, following
a period of negative IMF Bz. Quite conditions have prevailed
since around 15 UT and are expected to persist into 23-Mar. However,
IMF magnitude remains elevated, so any further Bz southward excursions
are likely to result in more active periods. Coronal hole effects
are expected to continue into 24-Mar, abating by 25-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20-30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15-45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant overnight depressions were observed over
the Australian region on 22-Mar. Similar conditions are expected
for 23 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 630 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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