[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 15 issued 2333 UT on 16 Mar 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 17 10:33:08 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1104UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
the largest event being an M1 flare from region 2297 (S17W49),
peaking at 16/1058 UT. This region also produced 6 C-class flares.
Ejected material was observed in association with the M-class
flare and also from a new region at N10W37, the latter around
16/1955 UT. A filament liftoff was observed in the southwest
quadrant, starting around 16/1400 UT. None of the ejected material
appears to be Earth-directed; further analysis will be possible
when SOHO/LASCO imagery becomes available. Although region 2297
appears stable, it is still likely to produce more M-class flares
over the next 3 days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 16/0545UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. This
is consistent with the expected arrival, from late on 17-Mar,
of a CME that occurred on 15-Mar. The solar wind speed reached
a peak of 441km/s on 16-Mar, with the IMF reaching a magnitude
of 14 nT and remaining above 10 nT for much of the day. The IMF
Bz component was southward between 00-06 UT, to a minimum of
-12 nT, but has remained mostly northward since. Coronal holes
at the poles are probably contributing to the increased solar
wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Unsettled to
Active
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 33333321
Cocos Island 12 33432320
Darwin 14 33433321
Townsville 14 33433321
Learmonth 12 33333321
Alice Springs 11 23333321
Norfolk Island 9 23332310
Culgoora 12 33333311
Gingin 11 33332321
Camden 12 33333311
Canberra 9 23332211
Melbourne 11 33332311
Launceston 14 33433321
Hobart 11 33432211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 23411100
Casey 24 44552323
Mawson 14 34422322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1231 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 18 Quiet, with active to minor storm later
18 Mar 25 Active to Minor Storm
19 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 15 March and
is current for 16-18 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions over the Australian
region were unsettled for much of the day, with a brief active
period 06-09 UT. Conditions returned to quiet levels after 18
UT. Quiet conditions are expected to continue until late on 17-Mar,
when the likely arrival of a 15-Mar CME will probably result
in active to minor storm conditions. Those conditions are expected
to persist into 18-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be near normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be strongly
enhanced at equatorial and tropical locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Australian region during 16-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 52000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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