[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 15 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 15 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0440UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate during Mar 14. AR 2297 produced
eleven C class X ray flares and a M1.3 flare peaking at 04:40
UT. AR 2297 is located in a geoeffective region. AR 2297 was
less active than during previous days, but it still has a Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration. It may produce more strong C class and M class
flares. Other sunspot groups have formed, but so far they are
relatively inactive. SOHO LASCO coronagrams show no clear evidence
for Earthward directed CMEs. The solar wind speed declined during
Mar 14 and is presently about 325 km/s. The magnitude of the
IMF was mostly about 6 nT to 7 nT and the Bz component fluctuated
mostly in the range -5 nT to +5 nT during Mar 14.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 12111002
Cocos Island 2 11111001
Darwin 3 12111002
Townsville 4 12112012
Learmonth 4 -3101002
Alice Springs 3 12111002
Norfolk Island 2 11111002
Culgoora 2 02111002
Gingin 2 12101002
Camden 4 12211012
Canberra 2 02111002
Melbourne 3 12212001
Launceston 4 12212002
Hobart 4 02212---
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 02213001
Casey 11 24431111
Mawson 11 34332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0000 4212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Mar 14. The
3-day outlook is for quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
due to the possible impact of disturbances emanating from AR
2297.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be near normal at middle latitudes
in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. MUFs may be strongly
enhanced at equatorial and tropical locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 116
Mar 90
Apr 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly near predicted
monthly values at Australian midlatitudes during Mar 14. However,
very strong enhancements occurred at Cocos Island and Darwin.
The preliminary daily T index values for these two stations were
178 and 141, respectively. Individual T indices exceeded 240
at Cocos Island during 08-09 UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 88000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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