[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 5 09:30:27 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: AR 2361(N16E64) is the most active region and produced
the largest flare of the day, a C8.1 event peaking at 0947UT.
AR 2361(N39E46) has also produced a minor C class flare late
yesterday. ARs 2360 and 2361 have grown somehow in size and complexity
and are showing signs of increasing potential for flare activity.
All other regions remained stable. Solar flare activity is expected
to be Low with a slight chance for an M-class flare in coming
days. No noteworthy Earthward directed CMEs were recorded in
the available SOHO/LASCO observations. Solar wind conditions
are ambient and are expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 01000000
Darwin 0 10000000
Townsville 0 01100000
Learmonth 0 00000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora 0 0110-000
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 1 02100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 10000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 11000100
Mawson 0 00000000
Davis 1 01000002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1101 1131
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 5 Quiet
06 Jun 7 Quiet
07 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
so for the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-fair Fair-normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Jun Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 83
Jun 86
Jul 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 65 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian region on 4 Jun due to low levels of ionising
solar flux. Two new regions have emerged in the northeast and
are showing signs of increasing potential for flare activity
which is expected to arrest the decline in MUFs seen over the
last few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 34300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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