[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 30 09:30:28 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 107/57 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. The coronal hole effect seems to be weakening. Solar
wind speed decreased from 400 to nearly 360 km/s during the UT
day today, whereas the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between
+/-4 nT during this period. The effect of the coronal hole is
expected to further weaken today. Another coronal hole is taking
geoeffective position. It is expected to strengthen solar wind
stream from 31 July. Very low levels of solar activity may be
expected for the next three days (30 and 31 July, and 1 August)
with some possibility of C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11122000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 4 22122011
Learmonth 2 10122000
Alice Springs 2 11112000
Norfolk Island 2 11022000
Culgoora 3 11122010
Gingin 3 11122010
Camden 3 11122010
Canberra 1 10012000
Launceston 3 11122010
Hobart 2 11001200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 00023000
Casey 7 33312110
Mawson 13 23321144
Davis 8 22421030
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2322 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 20 Quiet to minor storm
01 Aug 22 Minor storm declining to unsettled.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Mostly
quiet with some possibility of unsettled periods may be expected
on 30 July. Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurring coronal hole the activity may rise to minor
storm levels on 31 July and 1 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been observed over
the last 24 hours. These conditions are due to low levels of
ionising solar flux. Expect similar conditions on 30 July. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected on 31 July and 1 August due to expected rise
in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
31 Jul 45 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
01 Aug 40 20 to 35% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions of up to 30% have been seen across much
of the Australasian region over the last 24 hours. These conditions
are due to low levels of ionising solar flux. Expect similar
conditions on 30 July. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and
degradations in HF conditions may be expected on 31 July and
1 August due to expected rise in geomagnetic activity on these
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 86400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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