[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 15 issued 2335 UT on 06 Jul 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 7 09:35:07 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 0846UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.7 2040UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate,
with several C-class flares and two M-class flares, the largest
being an M1 from region 2381 (N15E43), peaking at 06/2040 UT.
Region 2381 showed continued growth. Region 2367 (S20) which
previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 7 Jul.
A nearby CME was evident in SDO imagery at 06/1325 UT, but is
unlikely to be geoeffective. Low to moderate activity is expected
for the next three days. The solar wind speed has remained around
500 km/s, the total IMF strength at around 5 nT and Bz mostly
neutral since around 08 UT, with some mild southward excursions
earlier. A brief spike in total IMF strength to 8 nT occurred
just after 23 UT. A gradual decline of the solar wind speed is
likely over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 33321121
Cocos Island 4 2-310020
Darwin 6 33211120
Townsville 8 33321121
Learmonth 9 33321130
Alice Springs 7 23321120
Norfolk Island 8 33321021
Culgoora 8 33321121
Gingin 6 22222130
Camden 7 23321121
Canberra 5 22321020
Melbourne 10 33422121
Launceston 12 33432122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 13 23533120
Casey 9 33321131
Mawson 33 65441161
Davis 28 55431161
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 5523 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jul 5 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet after an early
unsettled period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for 7-Jul, with quiet conditions likely 8-9 Jul as the solar
wind speed declines.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some mild depressions likely in southern hemisphere
7-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate overnight MUF depressions were observed in
the northern Australian and equatorial regions, with MUFs near
monthly predicted values elsewhere. Similar conditions are expected
for 7-Jul with MUFs near predicted monthly values 8-9 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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