[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 15 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 5 09:30:24 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Low
Flares: C class flares
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was low during 4 Jul UT. AR 2378
(S16E44) produced the largest flare of the day, a weak C1.0 event
peaking at 00:08 UT. Solar flare activity is expected to be low
with a small chance of an isolated M class flare during the next
2 days. A large solar prominence erupted from the NE limb during
18 to 19 UT on 4 Jul. The associated CME will not be geoeffective.
The large filament (prominence) located near the solar meridian
in the Northern Hemisphere has been very active and may soon
disappear. Fast solar wind arrived at Earth during late 4 Jul.
The solar wind speed increased gradually from 300 km/s to 400
km/s during 00 to 17 UT, and thereafter rapidly, peaking at about
600 km/s during 20 UT. The magnitude of the IMF increased to
23 nT and the Bz component swung southward to -22 nT briefly
during 19 UT. The magnitude of the IMF is presently about 12
nT and the Bz component has been varying in the range +2 nT to
-10 nT. Fast solar wind with Bz southward excursions is expected
today, 5 Jul UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 01102243
Cocos Island 8 01112243
Darwin 8 11102243
Townsville 8 11102243
Learmonth 9 10112244
Alice Springs 7 01002243
Norfolk Island 6 00001243
Culgoora 7 01102243
Gingin 9 00002253
Camden 7 01102243
Canberra 6 00001143
Melbourne 10 01002253
Launceston 8 11102243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 00004133
Casey 12 12013352
Mawson 31 01103267
Davis 20 01123265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 20 Active
06 Jul 12 Unsettled
07 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during the first half
of 4 Jul UT. They reached minor storm levels (Kp=5) during the
second half of 4 Jul due to the arrival of fast solar wind with
Bz southward excursions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to active during 5 Jul, decreasing to unsettled on 6 Jul UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be near predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere.
Conditions are still mildly depressed in the Southern Hemisphere,
especially at low latitude stations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 70
Jul 84
Aug 82
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mildly
depressed throughout the Australian region during 4 Jul UT. Darwin
recorded a T index of 46, Sydney a T index of 67 and Hobart a
T Index of 46. Similar conditions are expected today, 5 Jul UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 34700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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