[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jan 2015

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 31 10:30:28 EST 2015


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    1216UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 159/113


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity remains at Moderate levels with 3 M class 
flares over the previous 24 hours. Region 2268 produced an M1 
flare peaking at 0044UT and a longer duration (1:06) M1 flare 
peaking at 0536UT. Region 2277 also produced a very short (11 
minutes) M2 flare peaking at 1216UT. No CMEs were seen in LASCO 
coronagraphs in association with these or any other events. The 
solar wind remains moderately disturbed with speeds around 450 
km/s and Bt between 5-10 nT and Bz fluctuation between +/- 5nT. 
Further M class flares are possible over the next few days and 
the solar wind disturbance is expected to continue, possibly 
becoming more disturbed from the 1st of Feb (UT).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22211132
      Cocos Island         6   22211231
      Darwin               6   2221113-
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            7   22221232
      Alice Springs        6   22211132
      Norfolk Island       5   22211022
      Culgoora             9   2223--32
      Gingin               8   22211242
      Camden               6   22211123
      Canberra             5   22211122
      Launceston           8   23211133
      Hobart               7   22211133    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     7   22221232
      Casey               26   45632233
      Mawson              33   34422374
      Davis                3   1-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan : 
      Darwin              87   (Minor storm)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1101 1243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan    12    Unsettled
01 Feb    12    Unsettled
02 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet to Unsettled due to a 
continued high speed solar wind stream. These conditions are 
expected to continue for the next 3 days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jan   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      106
Jan      89
Feb      89

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan   105    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb   100    Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF 
communications are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced for the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    67500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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