[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 15 issued 2332 UT on 22 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 23 10:32:16 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0452UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jan 24 Jan 25 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar X-ray flare activity was moderate during Jan 22.
AR 2268 located on the eastern limb produced the largest flare
of the day, a M1.4 event peaking at 04:52 UT. There were five
C class flares during Jan 22. More C class flares are expected
today. AR 2268 may produce another M class flare during the next
48 hours. Solar activity will be low to moderate during Jan 23
to 25. The solar wind speed is showing signs of declining from
the peak values of yesterday. The solar wind speed is presently
fluctuating in the range 400 km/s to 450 km/s. The magnitude
of the IMF slowly declined from about 12 nT to 5 nT during Jan
22. The IMF Bz component has been fluctuating mostly in the range
-4 nT to +4 nT during the past 6 hours. Fast solar wind may arrive
again during Jan 25-26.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32233122
Cocos Island 8 32223121
Darwin 10 32233222
Townsville 11 33233123
Learmonth 14 43234222
Alice Springs 8 32223122
Norfolk Island 7 22223122
Culgoora 9 32233122
Gingin 12 43223232
Camden 9 32233122
Canberra 9 32233122
Launceston 16 43344222
Hobart 12 32334222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
Macquarie Island 19 33255312
Casey 30 55643232
Mawson 33 55443255
Davis 27 44454244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1121 2443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan 5 Quiet
25 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (Kp=4)
during 00 to 03 UT, Jan 22. Australian K indices reached
4 at Tasmania and Western Australia. However, the geomagnetic
conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled in the Australian region
(K=1 to 3). The fast solar wind is starting to subside and the
magnitude of the IMF has declined to 5 nT. The geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled during the
next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be near predicted
monthly values in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jan 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed, recovered as day progressed
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF propagation conditions were depressed
during Jan 22. The conditions were strongly depressed at Darwin
(T=20) and Townsville (T=21). Conditions improved across southern
Australia as the day progressed, and the entire region, including
Northern Australia, has almost recovered to near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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