[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 15 issued 2331 UT on 18 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 19 10:31:05 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Low
Flares: C1.0 flare.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low to low during Jan 18. The
largest solar flare was a C1.0 event at 05:52 UT. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low to low during Jan 19 and it may
increase during the next 48 hour as ARs rotate around the eastern
limb. The solar wind speed continued to gradually decline during
Jan 18 and is presently about 300 km/s. The IMF Bz component
has been fluctuating mostly in the range -5 nT to +5 nT. The
solar wind speed may start to increase late today due to the
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11012112
Cocos Island 2 21001100
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 5 11012123
Learmonth 3 21012102
Alice Springs 3 20002102
Norfolk Island 2 01010112
Culgoora 3 11012112
Gingin 4 22112102
Camden 6 11112114
Canberra 2 10001102
Launceston 5 21112212
Hobart 3 11012102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 11011101
Casey 13 44332212
Mawson 13 22123344
Davis 6 22222212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3201 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 7 Quiet
20 Jan 12 Unsettled
21 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region during Jan 18 and they are expected to remain quiet for
most of Jan 19. Geomagnetic conditions may become unsettled during
Jan 20-21 due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to remain near
predicted monthly values in the Northern Hemisphere and enhanced
in the Southern Hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 5 to 30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 5 to 20%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Jan 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region HF radio propagation conditions were
enhanced by 5-30% during Jan 18. Australian region T indices
are expected to remain 10-30 points above the predicted monthly
value during Jan 19.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 38700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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