[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 15 issued 2334 UT on 09 Jan 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 10 10:34:22 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C9.6 flare from region 2257 (N07W29) at
0817UT. Region 2257 continues to show signs of growth while all
other regions currently on the visible disk remained stable.
Consistent with the recent coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream rotating past the earth, solar wind speed has begun a
gradual decline from ~475km/s at 00UT to be ~400km/s at the time
of this report. Bz ranged between +/-6nT with no significant
sustained southward excursions. Solar activity is expected to
be at Low levels for the next three days with the chance of M-class
flares and slight chance of an X-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222112
Cocos Island 4 22211110
Darwin 5 31211112
Townsville 7 32222122
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 4 22211002
Norfolk Island 4 21212012
Culgoora 5 21222022
Gingin 6 32222101
Camden 7 22322022
Canberra 4 21212011
Hobart 7 22322112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 22233111
Casey 20 55432222
Mawson 15 43433321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12 3522 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 7 Quiet
11 Jan 6 Quiet
12 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to Enhanced MUF's observed for low to high latitudes.
Some periods of disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced HF conditions observed across all regions during
the last 24 hours. MUF's are expected to be near predicted monthly
values with enhancements of 10%-20% at times and occasional disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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