[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 15 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 27 10:30:36 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Very low levels of solar activity have been observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 440 to nearly 350 km/s today as the coronal hole effect
weakened. The Bz component of IMF varied approximately between
+/-4 nT during most parts of the day today. Another coronal hole
effect may keep the solar wind stream strengthened from 28 February.
Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 21221011
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Townsville 4 21122012
Learmonth 3 21111012
Alice Springs 2 11121001
Norfolk Island 4 31211002
Culgoora 3 11221011
Gingin 4 21111022
Camden 5 31221011
Canberra 3 11221011
Melbourne 6 2122----
Launceston 4 22221011
Hobart 3 11221011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 11223000
Casey 10 43322012
Mawson 11 22232134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1132 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 4 Quiet
28 Feb 20 Quiet to Active, some minor storm periods possible.
01 Mar 25 Unsettled to Active, minor storm possible.
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 27 February.
Due to an expected effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity may rise to Active levels
with possibility of some minor storm periods on 28 February.
The same effect may keep geomagnetic activity enhanced to unsettled
to minor storm levels on 1 March too.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded at low latitude
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal
in most other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on 27 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are expected
on 28 February and 1 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 105 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
01 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor MUF enhancements were recorded in Northern Aus/NZ
locations over the last 24 hours with HF conditions mostly normal
in most other regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on 27 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are expected
on 28 February and 1 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.8E+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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