[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 15 issued 2337 UT on 19 Feb 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 20 10:37:37 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: There are presently 5 numbered active regions on the
visible disk, although they are relatively small and magnetically
simple. There has been isolated minor low level flare activity
during 19 February. Further C-class activity is possible for
20 February with the very small chance of isolated M-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were apparent in SOHO satellite imagery.
Solar wind speeds have declined slowly during 20 February and
are presently around 350 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to remain low for 20 February and then increase again slightly
for 21-21 February. The N-S component of the IMF has been fluctuating
around neutral values.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22211222
Cocos Island 4 21111221
Darwin 6 22211222
Townsville 6 22221212
Learmonth 7 22221322
Alice Springs 6 22211222
Norfolk Island 4 11211112
Culgoora 5 22211212
Gingin 5 21111222
Camden 5 22211212
Canberra 4 12211211
Melbourne 6 22211222
Launceston 9 23311322
Hobart 6 22211222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 22312211
Casey 21 35542223
Mawson 23 44423254
Davis 17 34443223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16 5433 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 6 Quiet
21 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of active
levels at high latitudes
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet during 19
February for the Australian region with some elevated activity
at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
quiet to unsettled over the next few days with the chance of
isolated active periods at high latitudes for 21 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF radio propagation conditions are expected
for the next few days with some slightly degraded conditions
possible at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 104
Feb 90
Mar 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 85 Near predicted monthly values with isolated depressions
at times
21 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values over the next few days with isolated mild depressions
possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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