[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 15 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jan 2015
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 1 10:30:31 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has fallen to low levels with only a
few C1 flares occurring over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions
are mostly ambient. Low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 days with some chance of isolated M class flares.
A coronal hole high speed stream from a southern polar coronal
hole is expected to arrive within the next 24 hours. ACE solar
wind measurements since around 2300UT show an enhancement in
speed, density and Bt which may herald the arrival of this high
speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Cocos Island 5 21111222
Darwin 8 22222223
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 22112222
Alice Springs 6 22212222
Norfolk Island 4 12101222
Culgoora 9 2--2---3
Gingin 7 22112322
Camden 7 22212223
Canberra 6 22212222
Launceston 9 22212333
Hobart 7 22212322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 12123322
Casey 21 45532223
Mawson 21 34323345
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 76 (Active)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 54 (Unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2221 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 12 Unsettled
02 Feb 12 Unsettled
03 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions are expected due to a new coronal
hole high speed wind stream expected to arrive within the next
24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 106
Jan 89
Feb 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 100 Near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 95 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian region maximum useable frequencies for HF
communications are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 83400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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