[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 22 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 23 10:30:37 EST 2015


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    0336UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: The solar activity reached moderate levels for the UT 
day, 22 Dec. One M-class flare and a number of smaller C-class 
flares were observed during the past 24 hours, with the strongest 
M1.6 observed at 22/0334 UT from Region 2473. This active region 
was located in the far southeast quadrant (S23E69) at the time 
of eruption. Another active Region 2472 (N04E63) produced a C-class 
flare (C6.3) at 22/1338 UT. Both these active regions are on 
the east side (and rotating towards solar center) and have shown 
evidence of growth. The 2-day outlook (23-24 Dec) is for low 
to moderate solar activity with C-class flares likely and a small 
chance of M class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections 
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery during 
the last 24 hrs. The solar wind in the past 24 hours was steady, 
between 400 km/s and 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated 
between +/- 10 nT and Bt was between 5-12 nT. These perturbations 
in solar wind and IMF conditions are the waning effects of the 
19 Dec CME. The 2-day outlook (23-24 Dec) is for the solar winds 
to gradually decline to ambient levels as the CME effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22443122
      Cocos Island         9   22432021
      Darwin              11   22442121
      Townsville          12   22443122
      Learmonth           16   22453132
      Alice Springs       12   22443122
      Norfolk Island      10   22432122
      Gingin              14   22443232
      Camden              12   22443122
      Canberra            13   22442232
      Hobart              13   22443222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    14   23353122
      Casey               45   46753343
      Mawson              25   44443254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             37   6654 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet and at 
times reached unsettled levels during the last 24 hours (UT day 
22 Dec). The 2-day outlook (23-24 Dec) is for mostly quiet geomagnetic 
conditions and at times becoming unsettled. The conditions are 
forecasted due to solar winds been slightly strong, greater 400 
km/s.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal-fair    Poor           Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Depressed HF support expected over the next 24 hrs mainly 
in the high and mid-latitude regions due to the aftermath of 
the 19 December CME that produced G2 level geomagnetic storms.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Dec    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      55
Dec      63
Jan      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec    50    Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec    60    Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 22 December 
and is current for 22-23 Dec. IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 
83 was issued on 22 December and is current for 22-24 Dec. Observed 
MUF's for the UT day 22 Dec were about 40 points below the predicted 
monthly values. There is a chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts 
for the next two days due to flaring potential from active sunspot 
regions (Region 2472 and 2473). Strong geomagnetic activity associated 
with 19th December CME has caused this MUF degradation. The 2-day 
outlook (23-24 Dec) is MUFs are expected to trend gradually towards 
the predicted monthly values. A delayed recovery is expected 
in the high latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    52300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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