[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 15 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 7 10:30:30 EST 2015
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2015 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was Low during 06 Dec UT. AR 2463
(S11E40) produced a single low level C class flare at 2108UT.
This region showed some growth over the period while other regions
on the solar disk remained relatively stable. No Earth-directed
CME was observed in available LASCO imagery, although there are
significant data gaps. Expect mostly Low solar activity next
three days. As anticipated, ACE spacecraft detected the onset
of coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased from 450 Km/s, reached
670 Km/s ~ 0018UT and is presently about 600 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-10nT mostly
southward during the first half of the UT day. Elevated solar
wind speeds are expected to persist over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 14 23243333
Cocos Island 10 12133332
Darwin 12 22243323
Townsville 14 23243333
Learmonth 16 23243433
Alice Springs 13 23243323
Norfolk Island 8 22232222
Gingin 15 22243433
Camden 13 23243323
Canberra 12 12243323
Hobart 22 43354333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 29 24365433
Casey 22 44533333
Mawson 34 35444464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 1134 2443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 30 Unsettled to Active
08 Dec 20 Quiet to Active.
09 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 56 was issued on 4 December
and is current for 6-7 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions for the last
24 hours over the Australian region were Quiet to Active, with
a brief Minor storm period at higher latitude. Isolated Major
storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Continuing
Active periods and possible storm periods at higher latitudes
are likely 07-08 Dec, especially if IMF Bz has an extended southward
excursion. Conditions are expected to ease from 09Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
08 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
09 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected to continue over
the next few days due to low levels of ionising solar radiation
and increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 55
Dec 63
Jan 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
08 Dec 15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
09 Dec 25 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed during 06 Dec over
the Australasian region due to low levels of ionising radiation
and elevated geomagnetic activity. Periods of blanketing sporadic-E
conditions observed at times in Southern Australian region. Similar
HF conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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