[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 15 issued 2353 UT on 29 Aug 2015
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 30 09:53:35 EST 2015
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 AUGUST 2015 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
2403 (S15W82) the source of minor C-class events, the largest
being a C2.4 event at 2037UT. LASCO imagery analysis of the two
M-class events from 28Aug indicates no earth directed CME's.
Region 2403 is due to rotate of the visible disk in the next
24 hours and has the potential for further M-class events. Solar
wind speed remains elevated while under the influence of a coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream, ranging between 400km/s to
500km/s over the UT day. Bz gradually decreased in magnitude
with no significant sustained southward periods, fluctuating
between +/-10nT at 00UT to be +/-5nT at the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next
24 hours with Low to Very Low solar activity for 31Aug to 01Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 32230221
Cocos Island 6 31230220
Darwin 8 42221221
Townsville 8 42221221
Learmonth 6 32220221
Alice Springs 6 32220221
Norfolk Island 7 32230211
Culgoora 7 32230211
Camden 7 32231211
Gingin 10 42230321
Canberra 6 32130211
Melbourne 7 32231211
Launceston 10 33241221
Hobart 9 32240221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Aug :
Macquarie Island 15 33251331
Casey 19 54442222
Mawson 26 44433263
Davis 19 43452232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 45 5433 5574
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 12 Unsettled
31 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 29 August and
is current for 29-30 Aug. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the
next 24 hours with possible Active periods due to elevated solar
wind speed from coronal hole effects. Mostly Quiet conditions
expected for 31Aug to 01Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor-fair
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Regional foF2 values are generally 10%-40% below long
term predicted monthly values driven down by recent geomagnetic
activity. Ionospheric recovery and return to monthly predicted
values is expected to take longer than usual due to Low solar
activity forecast for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 55% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 60
Aug 80
Sep 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
31 Aug 30 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
01 Sep 35 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 29
August and is current for 29-30 Aug. IPS HF Communications Warning
45 was issued on 29 August and is current for 29-31 Aug. Depressed
ionospheric support observed across all AUS/NZ regions for the
last 24 hours. Similar to improving ionospheric support expected
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 46800 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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