[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 5 09:30:24 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with numerous C class
flares occurring from several regions including 2152(S15W26)
which has a Beta-Gamma magnetic complexity. Several new regions
are rotating around the eastern limb and have also produced C
class flares. No geoeffective CMEs were observed in association
with these flares. Solar wind conditions remain nominal. Flare
activity is expected to be Moderate for the next 3 days. A glancing
blow from the filament eruption observed on the 2nd of September
is expected sometime on the 6th of September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22221001
Cocos Island 2 21111000
Darwin 4 22211012
Townsville 4 22221011
Learmonth 4 22221001
Alice Springs 3 22211001
Norfolk Island 3 22120011
Culgoora 4 22221001
Gingin 3 22221000
Camden 4 22221001
Canberra 2 11120000
Launceston 5 22231011
Hobart 4 12231001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 21241000
Casey 9 33322112
Mawson 23 54433125
Davis 15 43532111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3432 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet. Similar conditions
are expected for the next day. On the 6th of September a possible
glancing blow from a CME may cause Unsettled to Active conditions
followed by Unsettled conditions with a chance of Active periods
on the 7th.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 72
Sep 88
Oct 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Useable HF communication frequencies were around predicted
monthly values over the previous day, with some variability in
northern and equatorial regions. Expect conditions mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 63100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list