[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 14 issued 2340 UT on 31 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 1 09:40:06 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
several C-class flares from regions 2149(N09W63)and 2152(S17E27),
the largest being a C7 at 1211UT from region 2149. Region 2152
increased in area and magnetic complexity while other regions
are mostly stable. Expect solar activity to be Low with a slight
chance of an M-class event for the next 3 days. A CME was observed
~~1248UT and may be associated with region 2149. This CME is not
expected to be geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs observed
in available SOHO/STEREO images on 31 Aug. Solar wind speed remained
around 450km/s over the UT day and the IMF Bz component ranged
between +/-5nT, mostly southward ~08-10UT, to -8nT. A small coronal
hole may influence the solar wind stream late in the UT day today,
01 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
with one isolated Active to Minor Storm period.
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 11342222
Cocos Island 5 11221122
Darwin 10 22342222
Townsville 9 22352223
Learmonth 3 1-------
Alice Springs 10 12342222
Norfolk Island 4 11252121
Culgoora 5 11252222
Gingin 11 22342232
Camden 5 11252222
Canberra 5 01252222
Launceston 10 32363222
Hobart 7 11362222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 26 11374222
Casey 13 23432233
Mawson 30 34434265
Davis 24 23433264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 3423 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 14 Quiet to Active.
02 Sep 14 Quiet to Active
03 Sep 7 Mostly Quiet.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled in the
Australian region over the last 24 hours. There was an isolated
Active to Minor Storm period at some stations ~09-12UT, most
likely due to a minor dip in the Bz component of the IMF. Conditions
are expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active
periods late in the UT day on the 01 Sep into 02 Sep, due to
the effects of a coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity should return
to mostly Quiet day 3, 03 Sep in the absence of prolonged IMF
Bz southwards or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% 16-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values
at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with occasional depressed periods for Equatorial region
during local night. Possible elevated geomagnetic activity in
the next 24 hours may result in slightly depressed MUF's for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions for 01-02 Sep. MUF's at
predicted monthly values and normal ionospheric support for most
regions expected for 03 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 88900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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