[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 Oct 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 31 10:30:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3 0135UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours.
Active region 2192 (S15W90) produced three M-class flares early
in the UT day as it rotated around the limb. The largest event
was a M3.5 peaking at 0135UT. In addition, active regions 2192
and 2201 produced several C-class flares. Solar wind speed remained
just under 350 km/s for most of the UT day and is currently in
decline. Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to be Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 3 11011122
Darwin 6 21111133
Townsville 5 21111123
Learmonth 3 10101122
Alice Springs 3 10011122
Norfolk Island 2 10010012
Culgoora 4 11111122
Gingin 4 11---122
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 2 10010022
Launceston 5 11121123
Hobart 4 11111122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 11232011
Casey 14 34431223
Mawson 13 22222253
Davis 11 33332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 61 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3211 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 6 Quiet
01 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the last 24
hours. Quiet conditions are expected during the UT day, 31 October.
01 November will likely be Unsettled in the Australian region
with isolated Active periods at high latitudes due to weak coronal
hole becoming geoeffective. Expect a return to quiet conditions
on 02 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 90
Oct 86
Nov 83
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
to 20% likely at Lower latitudes.
01 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values, possible enhancements
to 10-20% at Lower latitudes.
02 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values, possible enhancements
to 10-20% at Lower latitudes.
COMMENT: Enhanced to near predicted ionospheric support observed
at low to mid latitudes. Near predicted ionospheric support observed
at high latitudes. MUF's expected to be near predicted to enhanced
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 68000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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