[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 14 issued 2330 UT on 29 Nov 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 30 10:30:51 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 177/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. C-class
flares were produced by regions 2222 (S21E32) and 2219 (N03W41),
the largest being a C6 from the latter, peaking at 29/0821 UT.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind varied between
340 and 440 km/s. The total IMF reduced slightly to around 11
nT, while the Bz component varied between -11 to +12 nT, staying
mostly northwards.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22321122
Cocos Island 5 22221111
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 7 22321221
Learmonth 6 22221222
Alice Springs 7 22321122
Norfolk Island 5 -2221122
Culgoora 6 22321121
Gingin 7 22221132
Camden 7 22322122
Canberra 5 11311121
Launceston 9 22422222
Hobart 8 22412121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 11312111
Casey 30 45643333
Mawson 13 33423232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 77 (Active)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region over
the last 24 hours were mostly quiet, with a brief unsettled period
06-09 UT which reached active levels in the south. Conditions
varied from quiet to major storm levels in the Antarctic. Unsettled
conditions could occur over Australia during 30-Nov if the IMF
Bz turns strongly southward. A predicted lift in the solar wind
speed is likely to cause unsettled periods on 1-2 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 107
Nov 86
Dec 85
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 135 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 Dec 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
02 Dec 120 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region over the last 24 hours, with enhancements at Cocos AND
Niue Islands and in the south. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to enhanced over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 67700 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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