[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 14 issued 2345 UT on 11 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 12 09:45:31 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 164/118
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with numerous C class flares
from several active regions, the greatest being a C6 at 0443UT
from Region 2058 (S11E30). Expect solar activity to remain Low
with the chance for M-class events over the forecast period.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 11 May in the available
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. Solar wind speeds gradually
increased from ~ 340 km/s to 440 km/s between 00-05UT and Bz
ranged between +/-8nT with sustained southward periods. ACE satellite
data is suggestive that this is due coronal hole high speed stream.
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain at this levels for the
next 24 hours under the influence of the high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 7 32131122
Cocos Island 6 32221111
Darwin 9 33231122
Townsville 8 32231122
Learmonth 9 33231222
Alice Springs 7 32231121
Norfolk Island 5 22131011
Culgoora 7 32131121
Gingin 9 32231132
Camden 8 33131122
Canberra 4 22030011
Launceston 10 33141222
Hobart 8 32140122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 14 22162112
Casey 15 44431222
Mawson 34 65332164
Davis 27 53432164
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2311 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
13 May 7 Quiet
14 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled during the
UT day, 11 May. Expect activity to remain Quiet to Unsettled
with possible active periods under the influence of high speed
stream day 1, 12 May. Geomagnetic activity should return to mostly
Quiet on the following two days in the absence of prolonged IMF
Bz southwards or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remain near monthly predicted values during the
local daytime hours with slight to moderate depressions noted
during the local night time hours. Expect this trend to continue
for the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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