[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 14 issued 2341 UT on 07 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 8 09:41:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 06/2211UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 1630UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 07 May,
with an M1 flare from active region 2051 at 1629UT, which is
now beyond the west limb. C-class flares also occurred during
the period from this region. Expect Low solar activity over the
next three days with the small chance of M-class flare activity.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed during 07 May in the available
SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery. The solar wind ranged between
380 and 340 km/s over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain
in this range over the next 24 hours. Wind speed has increased
from ~340 to 380 km/s ~2200UT. Density indicates the arrival
of 03 May predicted CME. Solar wind parameters are expected to
become mildly disturbed on 09-10 May with the arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 2 01002002
Cocos Island 1 -1110001
Darwin 2 11102002
Townsville 3 11102012
Learmonth 2 00112002
Alice Springs 1 00002002
Norfolk Island 1 01002001
Culgoora 2 01002002
Gingin 1 00001002
Camden 2 0-002002
Canberra 1 00002001
Launceston 2 01002002
Hobart 1 00002001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00011001
Casey 3 12102012
Mawson 10 21111135
Davis 5 11211113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 7 Mostly Quiet.
09 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
10 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels during the
last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected on 08 May.
An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected during May 09-10
with the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 May 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The MUFs are near long-term predicted monthly values
with some nighttime depressions observed in the Australian region.
Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three days.
Possible disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
09-10 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 50600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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