[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 14 issued 2345 UT on 05 May 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 6 09:45:47 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
few C-class flares. Region 2051(S09W64 ), the most magnetically
complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta/Dac) on the visible is declining. Low
levels of solar activity with a chance of M-flares is expected
over the next three days. A partial halo CME, first observed
in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 00:12 UT. STEREO imagery indicates
the CME is not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed
varied between ~350km/s to ~400 km/s over the UT day today and
the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5nT during this time.
A glancing blow from a CME is expected to increase the solar
wind parameters day two,07 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 7 13222221
Cocos Island 5 12121221
Darwin 7 23221222
Townsville 7 23222221
Learmonth 9 23222232
Alice Springs 6 13221221
Norfolk Island 5 12221211
Culgoora 5 12222-21
Gingin 8 12222331
Camden 7 13222221
Canberra 5 02222221
Launceston 8 13222321
Hobart 7 12222321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 7 02322321
Casey 8 24212121
Mawson 22 34321363
Davis 8 23311231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16 3443 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 May 15 Unsettled to Active
08 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately
Quiet to Unsettled for the next 24 hours. Possible active periods
day 2 with the arrival of the May 3 CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some nighttime depressions were observed in Northern
AUS regions with the daily T index close to long-term predicted
monthly average but below recent weeks levels. MUF's are expected
to be near monthly predicted values for the next 3 days. Possible
disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 07-08 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 48600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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