[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 May 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 4 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C-class flares
from active regions 2047(S18W28), 2049(S07W00) and 2051(S09W50),
the greatest being a C5 flare from region 2051 at 0608UT. Several
CMEs, one of which is most likely associated with this event,
were observed. None are likely to be geoeffective. AR2051 showed
strong growth overnight, now has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
field and may produce M-class flares with a small chance of an
X-class flare over the period. Solar wind speed stayed between
~~300 and ~360 km/s and the IMF Bz mostly stayed near zero but
went negative up to -8nT since 1600UT and is continuing south
at 2300UT. Light solar wind speeds are expected for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 3 10000132
Cocos Island 4 01110232
Darwin 4 20100232
Townsville 4 20000232
Learmonth 4 11000232
Alice Springs 4 10000232
Norfolk Island 2 11000122
Culgoora 2 10000121
Gingin 3 00000132
Camden 1 00000121
Canberra 1 00000121
Launceston 3 10000132
Hobart 3 10000032
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00000021
Casey 3 11000031
Mawson 16 10000065
Davis 2 00000032
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 May 7 Quiet
06 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet with an isolated Unsettled
period ~1800UT. This was seen in association with a southward
turning of the interplanetary magnetic field. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected on 04-May. The field should return to
mostly Quiet conditions on the following two days in the absence
of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: There is a chance of short-wave fadeouts for the forecast
period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 115
May 91
Jun 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some nighttime depressions were observed in Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions with the daily T index
below predicted monthly average. Expect these conditions to prevail
for the next 24 hours. There is the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 24100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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