[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 14 issued 2337 UT on 30 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 1 09:37:22 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with a
few B-class and two C1 flares. Currently five active regions
on the disc and AR2049 (7S, 40E) is the largest (> 300 mils)
and most active. Interplanetary Magnetic Field IMF north-south
Bz was negative near -10nT for most of the UT day until ~16UT,
making a continuous 21 hour period. This greatly enhanced merging
with the geomagnetic field and was likely caused by a sector
boundary. Solar wind speed was 300-330km, low for this phase
of a solar max but elevated compared with the previous few days.
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with
a slight chance of an isolated low M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 22333340
Cocos Island 12 12223350
Darwin 11 22223341
Townsville 11 22323241
Learmonth 15 22234350
Alice Springs 13 22234340
Norfolk Island 8 22223230
Culgoora 9 22323231
Gingin 17 22334351
Camden 10 22323240
Canberra 10 22323240
Launceston 18 23444341
Hobart 17 22444340
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 30 13565342
Casey 7 32112231
Mawson 25 45423254
Davis 7 22212231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1001 1224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 6 Quiet
02 May 6 Quiet
03 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from Quiet to Active levels
at mid and low latitudes during the last 24 hours and up to Storm
levels at polar latitudes. The Australian region magnetic storm
index (Dst) reached -110 which is a substantial level. This was
due to enhanced merging with the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) as it's north-south (Bz) component stayed substantially
southward (-10nT) for an unusual ~21 hours from 19UT on the 29th,
probably the result of a solar sector boundary crossing. The
IMF Bz returned to the usual +/-5nT range ~16UT so the geomagnetic
field should return to Quiet conditions over 1st May. No apparent
Coronal Mass Ejections are inbound.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
03 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 May 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs close to long term monthly predicted values and
so only mildly suppressed by Unsettled to Active geomagnetic
activity which occurred over most of the UT day. Expect return
to normal conditions (i.e. enhanced over long term predicted
monthly T) from the 1st May UT.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 274 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 15900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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