[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 23 10:30:14 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0702UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels during 22 March
due to an isolated M1.1 flare from active region 2011(S07W77)
at 0702UT. Active regions 2005,2008 and 2015 all produced C-class
flares during 22 March. Mostly Low to moderate activity is expected
for the next 3 days. No geoeffective CME activity was observed
during 22 March. Solar wind speeds steady increased and are presently
~~ 500km/s and the Bz component between -4/+5 nT but mainly northwards,
not conducive for geomagnetic merging. Light to Moderate solar
wind speeds are expected for day 1, 23 March. Day 2, 24 March,
there is likely to be a minor increase in the solar wind due
to a weak coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Mostly Quiet.
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Cocos Island 3 21112100
Darwin 6 31212112
Townsville 6 31212112
Learmonth 5 31212111
Alice Springs 4 21212101
Norfolk Island 4 31102011
Culgoora 4 21112112
Gingin 4 21212111
Camden 4 21112112
Canberra 4 21112112
Launceston 5 21113112
Hobart 5 21113111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 10004111
Casey 13 34431122
Mawson 8 32222123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3223 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 7 Quiet
24 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels during
the UT day,22 March with isolated cases of Unsettled and Active
levels in the polar regions. 23 March should be mostly Quiet
in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards. A slight increase
in activity is possible day 2, 24 March, due to a minor increase
in the high speed solar wind stream from a weak coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to continue to be mostly above predicted
monthly values for the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Mar 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were above predicted monthly values for
22 March and are expected to continue above predicted monthly
values for the next few days. There is the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 40600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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