[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 14 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 11 10:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0026UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0408UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 1528UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 2254UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 10 March.
Four M1 flares as well as several C class flares, mainly from
region 2002(S19E37). This region (beta-gamma-delta /Dac) showed
strong growth overnight and hold potential for further M class
flares and a chance of X class flares during the forecast period.
Background x-ray flux has increased. A CME observed in available
LASCO images after 1236UT but the relevant period of imagery
is not yet available to see whether it has an earth directed
component. Solar wind speeds steady increased and are presently
~~ 350km/s and Bz component ranged in the neutral +/-4nT. Light
(~ 400km/s) solar wind speeds are expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Mostly Quiet.
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11121001
Cocos Island 2 12111000
Darwin 3 11121002
Townsville 2 11121001
Learmonth 3 21121001
Alice Springs 2 11120001
Norfolk Island 3 11030011
Culgoora 3 11131001
Gingin 2 11121001
Camden 4 1113-101
Canberra 3 01131000
Launceston 4 12231001
Hobart 3 01231000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 01141000
Casey 6 23321101
Mawson 9 22121243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 7 Quiet
12 Mar 5 Quiet
13 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly at Quiet levels during
the UT day,10 March with isolated cases of Unsettled and Active
levels in the polar regions.11-13 March should be mostly Quiet
in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards or CME activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Possible short-wave fadeouts(SWFs) for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 121
Mar 79
Apr 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUFs were generally above predicted monthly
values. Expect this trend to continue for the next three days.
Active region 2002 appear to hold potential for further M class
flares and short-wave fadeouts(SWFs) is possible over the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 28700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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