[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 14 issued 2338 UT on 29 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 30 09:38:46 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with numerous C-class flares
from a number of active regions, the greatest being a C4 flare
from region 2104 (S10E64) at 1152UT. All regions mostly stable
with 2097(N13W03) showing some slight growth and new regions
2102(N11E65), 2103(S10E52) and 2105(S07E31) numbered. Further
C-class activity is expected over the next few days, with a slight
chance for an M-class flare. A CME was observed at ~1200 UT most
likely associated with the C4 event. It is not expected to be
geoeffective. Solar wind speed stayed ~350 km/s and the IMF Bz
mostly stayed near zero but went negative up to -10 nT since
2200UT and is continuing south at 2300UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 21100012
Cocos Island 2 11110012
Darwin 3 12100022
Townsville 3 21100022
Learmonth 3 22100012
Alice Springs 2 21100012
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Culgoora 2 21000011
Gingin 3 22100022
Camden 2 21100011
Canberra 2 21000011
Launceston 3 21012011
Hobart 2 21000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 10012000
Casey 3 23110010
Mawson 11 53111212
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2111 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 5 Quiet
02 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Unsettled periods my be observed next
24 hours as the Bz component of the IMF turned southward at approximately
2200UT and is continuing south at 2300UT. Mostly Quiet conditions
for the following two days in the absence of prolonged IMF Bz
southwards or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux is trending upward and the multiday
outlook is for a strengthening of ionospheric support.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 70 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The F10.7 cm solar radio flux and ionospheric T index
are trending upwards. Expect similar conditions next few days
with ionospheric support strengthening due to increased solar
10.7cm irradiance. There is the slight chance for short-wave
fadeouts over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 46400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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