[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 22 09:30:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Region 12093 (S10 W07) produced two C flares. This region
showed some decay, an unnumbered region to its southwest grew
while other regions were mostly stable. SOHO and STEREO images
show a CME at ~0654 UT while SDO and GONG images show the CME
was associated with a filament disappearance which began ~0340
UT in the northern hemisphere. While well positioned, the material
was ejected north of the ecliptic and is not expected to be geoeffective.
ACE data show the solar wind speed range 400-490 km/s with slightly
disturbed conditions in other parameters until ~08 UT (northsouth
IMF range +/-7 nT). Since then, the solar wind has been at nominal
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 11220000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 21210000
Townsville 4 12320001
Learmonth 2 11210000
Alice Springs 2 11210000
Norfolk Island 2 11220000
Culgoora 3 12220001
Gingin 2 02210000
Camden 2 11220001
Canberra 2 11220000
Launceston 4 12320001
Hobart 2 01220001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 00420000
Casey 4 13310000
Mawson 9 33322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2123 2313
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 16 Quiet to unsettled. Active to minor storm periods
late if CME impacts.
23 Jun 22 Unsettled to Active. Isolated minor storm periods.
24 Jun 12 Unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 20 June and
is current for 22-23 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Fair-poor
24 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 25-50% 08-12 UT. Depressed 20-40%
03, 05, 13-18, 21-23 UT. Near predicted monthly
values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 25-45% 04-05, 07-12, 16 UT. Near
predicted monthly values to 20% depressed at
other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Depressed 25-45% at Darwin 11-18, 21 UT. Depressed
20-30% at Townsville 02, 07-17 UT. Night spread F
at times 14-21 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed 20-30% 00-02, 07-10 UT. Night spread F 09-20
UT at some eastern stations.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 00-13 UT.
Depressions 20-35% and weaker ionosphere after 13 UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
23 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
24 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index. Night communications
may be degraded.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 60900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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