[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 14 issued 2334 UT on 19 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 20 09:34:05 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Regions 12093 (S10 E19) and 12095 (N06 W83) were the
only regions to produce C flares. Region 12093 showed growth,
12087 (S19 W49) decayed, while other regions appear stable. SDO/GONG
images show a filament eruption beginning ~1539 UT and adjacent
to 12093 which flared at 1924 UT. A CME was associated with this
activity and is expected to impact Earth late 22 to 23 June.
ACE data show the solar wind settling with wind speed decreasing
to 410 km/s. The northsouth IMF fluctuations decreased from +9
to -7 nT, to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 23221121
Cocos Island 5 22221021
Darwin 6 23221121
Townsville 6 23221121
Learmonth 8 23221132
Alice Springs 6 23221121
Norfolk Island 5 23220011
Culgoora 6 23221111
Gingin 7 22211232
Camden 6 23221121
Canberra 5 22221111
Launceston 7 23222121
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 6 21322111
Casey 12 34331222
Mawson 36 45432266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 3232 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 6 Quiet
21 Jun 5 Quiet
22 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase late 22 to 23 June
due to a CME impact. Active conditions possible late 22 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index, particularly on circuits
including the southern hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed
20-25% 00-01, 21-23 UT, depressed 20-40%
12-18 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly 15-30% depressed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed at
Darwin 20-45% 00, 10-16 UT with night spread
F. Depressed at Townsville 20-30% 00, 10-14 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Spread F at Hobart 08-23 UT. Occasional night
spread F at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 10-30% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
21 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
22 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Lower than expected solar flux is likely to reduce MUFs
below those based on the monthly T index, particularly on circuits
including the southern hemisphere. Night communications may be
degraded.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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