[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 17 09:30:16 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0002UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: A number of C-class flares from AR 12085 (S15 W87),
12087 (S19 W06) and 12089 (N18 W51). A CME was associated with
the M1 flare from AR 12087 but with most of the material directed
southwest, it is unlikely to be geoeffective. ACE data show the
solar wind was at nominal levels. There is a small coronal hole
located about 20 degrees west.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 01101110
Cocos Island 2 01211010
Darwin 2 01101111
Townsville 3 11201111
Learmonth 2 10211101
Alice Springs 1 01101100
Norfolk Island 1 01101010
Culgoora 2 01101111
Gingin 2 11102100
Camden 2 01101111
Canberra 1 00101110
Launceston 2 11101120
Hobart 1 00101110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00001110
Casey 3 12201101
Mawson 7 32221221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 2012 1312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun 7 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A small coronal hole may increase activity to unsettled
to active levels in two to three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) over
forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 20-30%
depressions 03-04, 08-11 and 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions
of 15-35% at Darwin 07-17 and 21 UT and
15-25% depressed at Townsville 06, 09-13 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Some deeper depressions to 25% mostly before
15 UT. Enhanced 20-30% at Perth 17-22 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 30%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
18 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
19 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Night spread F observed at most northern and eastern
observatories. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs)
over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 47900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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