[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 8 09:30:48 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels during the last
24 hours. Today's largest event was a C3 flare that peaked at
0625UT. Solar wind speed mostly stayed around 350 km/s until
a weak shock arrived at 1608UT. After the shock solar wind speed
increased to over 400 km/s and remained steady at that level
for the rest of the day. The Bz component of IMF was stable and
close the normal value until the shock arrived. Bz fluctuated
between approximately +10/-14 nT during the rest of the day.
Minor coronal hole effects may keep the solar wind stream slightly
enhanced on 8 June. Low levels of solar activity with the possibility
of M-class activity may be expected during the next three days.
A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1608UT on 07 Jun.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
07/1945UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 11211323
Cocos Island 5 11210322
Darwin 9 21211423
Townsville 9 21221423
Learmonth 10 21220433
Alice Springs 9 12211423
Norfolk Island 6 11210323
Culgoora 7 11211323
Gingin 8 21210333
Camden 7 11221323
Canberra 4 01210312
Launceston 9 11221423
Hobart 7 11221323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 00131211
Casey 13 23322433
Mawson 18 33332335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3200 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jun 5 Quiet
10 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to active levels
today. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions with isolated
active periods may be expected on 8 June. Conditions may decline
to and stay at mostly quiet levels on 9 and 10 June. In the IPS
magnetometer data for 07 Jun, a weak (14nT) impulse was observed
at 1652UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to low
EUV levels. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected for
the next three days with some possibility of slight improvements
in HF conditions from 9 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 60 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
09 Jun 62 10-20% below predicted monthly values
10 Jun 62 10-20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 35% observed in the Australian
region due to low EUV levels. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days. Slight improvement in HF conditions
may be possible from 9 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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