[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 14 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jun 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 4 09:31:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0409UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at moderate levels during the
last 24 hours. One M1 flare was observed from region 2077(S08E17).
This flare peaked at 0409UT.Solar wind speed mostly stayed between
300 and 320 km/s during the first half of the UT day today and
went up to around 360 km/s during the second half. The Bz component
of IMF varied between +/-7 nT during this day, staying positive
during most parts of the day. Minor coronal hole effects may
keep the solar wind stream slightly enhanced during the next
three days. Low levels of solar activity with the possibility
of M-class activity may be expected during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Cocos Island 2 22110010
Darwin 5 32220111
Townsville 4 22220111
Learmonth 5 32220011
Alice Springs 3 22120010
Norfolk Island 2 22110010
Culgoora 2 22110001
Gingin 3 22110011
Camden 2 22110010
Canberra 1 21010000
Launceston 3 22110011
Hobart 2 22110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 4 32120011
Mawson 9 53120110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0100 0113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable depressions in MUFs were observed due to declining
EUV levels resulting from a decrease in active regions on the
Sun. Expect similar conditions over the next three days. Note
MUFs are expected to remain lower than predicted due to this
decrease in EUV.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
05 Jun 60 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
06 Jun 60 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 3 June
and is current for 3-4 Jun. Variable depressions to 20% observed
in the Australian region due to declining EUV levels resulting
from a decrease in active regions on the Sun. Expect similar
conditions over the next three days. Note MUFs are expected to
remain lower than predicted due to this decrease in EUV.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 297 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 40300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list