[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 14 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 3 09:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 169/123
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with only a C1 flare.
Region 2104(S11E29) declined over the last 24 hours but maintains
a delta configuration and may produce M-class flares over the
coming days, however it has been inactive to date. Region 2107(S19E37)
is declining and is now magnetically simple. Region 2089 (N18)
which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around
3 Jul. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01101001
Cocos Island 2 11210101
Darwin 2 12101101
Townsville 3 11102102
Learmonth 2 01201100
Alice Springs 1 01101000
Norfolk Island 2 01002011
Culgoora 0 00000---
Gingin 1 01102000
Camden 2 01102001
Canberra 1 00102001
Launceston 2 01102001
Hobart 1 00102001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 2 02201000
Mawson 5 12201113
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 5 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are quiet and no significant disturbances
are expected over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some mild depressions, particularly during local night and in
the north of Australia. Conditions near to predicted monthly
values are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 39300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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