[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 1 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with several C-class
flares occurring over the last 24 hours the greatest being at
C3 level. The most significant regions on the visible Sun remain
regions 2104(S10E64) and 2107(S20E75). Solar wind conditions
are ambient with the total field strength of the IMF (Bt) reducing
to around 5nT from the slightly elevated levels over the past
couple of days. Flare activity is expected to remain at Low levels,
with a small chance of M-class flares. Solar wind conditions
are expected to remain ambient for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 21100000
Cocos Island 2 21110000
Darwin 3 31100001
Townsville 3 32100011
Learmonth 3 32100000
Alice Springs 2 21100001
Norfolk Island 2 31100000
Culgoora 2 21100001
Gingin 2 22100000
Camden 1 21100000
Canberra 1 21100000
Launceston 1 21100000
Hobart 1 21100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 10000000
Casey 4 2210----
Mawson 9 53111110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3221 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 5 Quiet
02 Jul 5 Quiet
03 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain
mostly quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The ionising EUV solar flux is trending upward and the
multiday outlook is for a strengthening of ionospheric support.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 80
Jun 92
Jul 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed by between 15-30% across most of
Australia over the previous day. The ionising EUV flux from the
Sun is trending upwards and MUFs should return to near monthly
predicted values over the coming days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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