[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 21 10:30:18 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during 20 Jan UT. AR 1959 located
in the SE quadrant produced C class flares, the strongest being
a C3.4 event at 02:20 UT. Another C-class flare is in progress
at the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to remain
low during the next 48 hours, with a chance of an M class flare.
A partial halo CME launched at 15 UT toward the NE and E is not
Earthward directed. The solar wind speed was mostly in the range
280 to 300 km/s until 17 UT when it increased to about 330 km/s.
The solar wind speed is presently trending toward 350 km/s. The
large coronal hole (CH 600) located in the NW quadrant is too
far north to produce especially strong flows at Earth. The IMF
Bz component was mostly in the range -4 nT to +3 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 1 02100100
Darwin 2 11101012
Townsville 3 11111022
Learmonth 2 10111111
Alice Springs 2 10101012
Norfolk Island 1 10101011
Culgoora 6 11-3--12
Gingin 3 11112210
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 2 01111111
Launceston 4 01212112
Hobart 2 01111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 11 24422112
Mawson 4 11112121
Davis 4 01222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 4 Quiet
23 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region during 20 Jan UT. Enhanced solar wind flows may lead to
unsettled periods during 21 Jan UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 130 Enhanced by 10-40% above predicted monthly values
22 Jan 125 Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values
23 Jan 120 Enhanced by 10-30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric propagation support was enhanced to strongly
enhanced throughout the Australian region during 20 Jan UT. Conditions
near Darwin were enhanced by 20-70% for most of the UT day. Midlatitude
stations were enhanced by 20-40% for most of the day. The T indices
for Australian Antarctic stations exceeded 200. The ionospheric
propagation support is expect to remain enhanced to strongly
enhanced during the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 290 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 18000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list