[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 January 14 issued 2333 UT on 06 Jan 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 7 10:33:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 204/155
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
C-class events from regions 1937 (S14W84) and 1944 (S10E13),
the largest being a C7 X-ray flare from the latter. A CME from
the west limb, first observed in SDO imagery at 06/0744UT, is
unlikely to be geoeffective. Region 1946 (N09E10) showed signs
of growth. Region 1928 (S16) which previously produced M-flare(s)
is due to return around 7 Jan. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit are ~20 pfu. Solar activity over the next
3 days is expected to be low to moderate, with a chance of X-flares.
The solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day from
~~400 km/s to ~350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 4 22101121
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Culgoora 2 11100021
Gingin 3 11111111
Camden 3 11211011
Canberra 1 01100011
Launceston 3 12200111
Hobart 2 11200111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 11 34322222
Mawson 12 22213334
Davis 11 24223132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0010 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 15 Quiet to Active
08 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the last 24 hours.
Conditions on 7-Jan are expected to be quiet to active in the
Australian region, with storm level conditions possible in the
Antarctic region, due to a likely glancing blow from a CME observed
4-Jan. Conditions are likely to abate during 8-9 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 06 01 2014 2000UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0820UT 06/01, Ended at 1710UT 06/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some periods of degraded HF conditions are expected
at high latitudes later on 7-8 Jan due to a likely increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Jan 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Jan 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced
MUFs were observed over the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ region.
MUFs are expected to remain at or above predicted monthly values
for the next 3 days, with some MUF depressions at high latitudes
on 7-8 January due to an expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
Short wave fadeouts are possible for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 80800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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