[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 14 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jan 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 4 10:30:15 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 02/2218UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 182/135
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 190/143
COMMENT: Moderate levels of solar activity were observed during
the last 24 hours. Several C-class and one M1.1 flares were observed.
This M1 flare peaked at 2114UT and came from region 1944. This
region produced most of the flares today. The same region also
produced an M1.2 event late yesterday which peaked at 2218UT
on 02 January. This event could not be included in yesterday's
report due to the late timing of the event. As anticipated, the
solar wind stream showed weakening as the coronal hole moves
out of geoeffective location. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 600 to below 500 km/s over the UT day today. The
Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +4/-6nT, staying southwards
for relatively longer periods of time during this period. Solar
wind stream is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours
as the effect of the coronal hole is expected to further decline
during this time. Moderate levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated X-class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled with isolated Active periods at some high latitude
locations
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 22232221
Darwin 8 22232222
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 8 22232222
Alice Springs 7 22232221
Culgoora 6 22222211
Gingin 7 21232221
Camden 6 22222221
Canberra 5 22221211
Launceston 10 23332222
Hobart 7 22232221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 22354321
Casey 29 56543222
Mawson 25 32444362
Davis 23 34544341
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 3432 3353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 5 Quiet
06 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity varied from quiet to unsettled
levels today with isolated active periods recorded on some high
latitude locations. Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
decline from unsettled to quiet levels over the next 24 hours
(4 January) and then stay at quiet levels for the following 2
days (5 and 6 January) thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with short wave fadeouts late during the UT day. Periods
of sporadic E were also observed. HF conditions are expected
to gradually improve over the next 24 hours (4 January) as the
geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline over this
period. Normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 and 6 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 73
Feb 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jan 130 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Jan 135 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours in the Aus/NZ region with short wave fadeouts late during
the UT day. Periods of sporadic E were also observed. HF conditions
are expected to gradually improve over the next 24 hours (4 January)
as the geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually decline
over this period. Normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 and
6 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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