[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 14 issued 2331 UT on 01 Jan 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 2 10:31:10 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.9 1852UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: High levels of solar activity were observed during the
last 24 hours. Several C-class and one M9.9 flares were observed.
This M9.9 flare peaked at 1852UT and came from region 1936. The
region is in a geoeffective position and a partial halo CME seems
to be associated with the flare. Its geo-effectiveness is still
being assessed. Another slow CME from the same region 1936 that
was observed in association with M6 flare (2158UT/31December)
may also have some impact on the earth around 5 January. As anticipated,
the solar wind speed gradually increased from 370 to over 550
km/s due to the effect of a coronal hole today. The Bz component
of IMF mostly stayed from slightly to moderately negative (up
to around -11nT) during this period. Solar wind stream may gain
further strength on 02 January due to the effects of a coronal
hole and previously observed CME activity. Moderate levels of
solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 11224333
Darwin 9 21223323
Townsville 10 21223333
Learmonth 15 22234334
Alice Springs 9 21223323
Culgoora 9 11223233
Gingin 13 20224334
Camden 10 11224233
Canberra 9 01213243
Launceston 14 12334333
Hobart 13 12324333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
Macquarie Island 18 11236422
Casey 19 24434234
Mawson 23 34435343
Davis 21 34454322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 3 1022 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jan 15 Unsettled to Minor Storm
03 Jan 10 Unsettled
04 Jan 19 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 31 December
and is current for 2 Jan only. Geomagnetic activity varied from
quiet to active levels today. Geomagnetic activity may further
rise from unsettled to minor storm levels on 02 January with
the possibility of slow decline in activity to mostly unsettled
levels on 03 and 04 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 12 2013 1905UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
03 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
04 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF enhancements were observed over
the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic E were also observed.
The M6 flare of 31 December and M9.9 flare of 01 January caused
short wave fadeouts. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions may be expected on high and some mid-latitude
locations on 02 January due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels on this day. HF conditions may slowly recover
to mostly normal levels on 03 and 04 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jan 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 130
Jan 71
Feb 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
03 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 1 was issued
on 31 December and is current for 2 Jan only. Minor to moderate
MUF enhancements were observed over the last 24 hours in the
Aus/NZ regions. Periods of sporadic E were also observed. The
M6 flare of 31 December and M9.9 flare of 01 January caused short
wave fadeouts. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and MUF depressions may be expected in this region on 02 January
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on this
day. HF conditions may slowly recover to mostly normal levels
on 03 and 04 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 57600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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