[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 14 10:30:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0140UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity has been high over the last 24 hours,
with 5 M class X-ray flares from active region 1974 (S07W28),
the largest of which was an M1.8 at 13/0140UT. No significant
Earthward-directed CMEs were observed over the period. Further
modelling of the CMEs from 11-Feb and 12-Feb indicates an expected
combined arrival early on 15-Feb. The CME arrival should be associated
with a shock in the solar wind, a solar wind speed increase,
and significant fluctuations of the IMF. AR1974 remains an Fkc
/ beta-gamma-delta classified spot region and continues to exhibit
growth. There is likely to be further flaring from this region
over the next 24-48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be at
Moderate levels (M-class flares) with a slight chance of X-class
flaring. The solar wind speed declined over the period to near
300km/s at the time of reporting. The IMF remains stable.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 11120001
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 20110002
Townsville 2 11120011
Learmonth 3 21220002
Alice Springs 2 20120001
Norfolk Island 1 10010011
Culgoora 2 10120001
Gingin 3 22220001
Camden 2 10120001
Canberra 2 10120001
Launceston 2 11120011
Hobart 2 10120001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 6 22331011
Mawson 1 10110000
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3211 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 5 Quiet
15 Feb 40 Minor Storm
16 Feb 16 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 12 February
and is current for 13-15 Feb. The geomagnetic field was Quiet
over the last 24 hours. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 14 Feb.
A series of CMEs that erupted on 11-12 Feb are expected to arrive
from early on 15-Feb, producing Minor Storm conditions 15-Feb,
with the possibility of Major Storm periods, particularly at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Fair Fair-poor Poor
16 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Feb 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12
February and is current for 13-14 Feb. IPS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 8 was issued on 13 February and is current for 15-17
Feb. The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal
to enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above
predicted monthly values at most locations. MUFs are expected
to continue to be enhanced next two days. An expected increase
in geomagnetic activity may result in some MUF depressions to
30% on 16-Feb, particularly at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations.
Further short-wave fadeouts are likely over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 20800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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