[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 7 10:30:34 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 191/143
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 8/0 15/0 10/0
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with only C class flares
in the past 24 hours, mostly from region 1967(S12W51) and 1968(N10W45).
Region 1967 has declined in size and complexity although still
retains the potential for further M class flares. This region
along with 1968 has been far less eruptive over the current rotation
than might be expected given the observed magnetic complexity.
Solar wind conditions are ambient. No significant CMEs were observed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22122312
Cocos Island 4 22112210
Darwin 6 22212212
Townsville 9 32223312
Learmonth 7 32122311
Alice Springs 6 22122311
Norfolk Island 6 12122312
Culgoora 7 22122312
Gingin 6 32122211
Camden - --------
Canberra 8 22123312
Launceston 10 33223312
Hobart 7 22223212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 9 12134301
Casey 17 55322212
Mawson 20 45324323
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The expected arrival of two small CMEs and a coronal
hole high speed wind stream in the next 24-48 is expected to
cause Unsettled conditions with a good chance of isolated Active
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 154
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 75
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
08 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
09 Feb 130 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions remain good with enhanced MUFs
observed across the Australian region. These conditions are expected
for the next 3 days. Some disturbance and reduce MUFs may be
experience in southern regions on the 8th and 9th of Feb however
this disturbance, if it occurs, is expected to be minor.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 51100 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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