[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 31 10:30:36 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C2 flare at 0646UT from region 2251(S09E18).
Solar wind speed showed a gradual increase during the first 5
hours of the UT day today and went above 750 km/s. It then gradually
decreased to below 600 km/s by around 2300UT. The Bz component
of IMF showed fluctuations (+/- 10 nT) during the first few hours
of the day and then gradually settled near the normal value by
the late hours of the day. Solar activity is expected to stay
at low levels for the next three days with some possibility of
isolated M-class event. Solar wind stream is expected to stay
strong due to the effect of the coronal hole on 31 December and
then gradually weaken through 1st and 2nd January. There are
currently 7 sunspot groups on the solar disk visible from the
earth. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 30/2030UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to minor
storm
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33322222
Cocos Island 6 22222221
Darwin 10 33322222
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 7 22322221
Alice Springs 9 33322221
Norfolk Island 8 23322121
Culgoora 9 33322122
Gingin 13 33323332
Camden 10 33322222
Canberra 8 33312121
Hobart 12 34323222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 22 34435431
Casey 34 56643232
Mawson 33 44543463
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 54 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 85 (Minor storm)
Canberra 73 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19 2213 4544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 10 Unsettled to Active
01 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active conditions observed on low and
mid latitudes with some minor storm periods on high latitudes
today due to the continued effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole. This effect is expected to continue
and possibly gradually weaken over the next 48 hours. Geomagnetic
activity may remain high up to Active levels on 31 December and
then gradually decline to Unsettled and then to Quiet levels
by late hours on 1st January and then stay at quiet levels on
2nd January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with minor to
mild depressions on high latitudes today. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 31 December due to an expected continued rise
in geomagnetic activity on this day. MUFs are then expected to
gradually come up to the normal value over 1st and 2nd January.
Minor MUF depressions are still possible on 1st January, especially
on high latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
01 Jan 95 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
02 Jan 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values with minor to
mild depressions in Southern Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected on 31 December due to an expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity on this day. MUFs are
then expected to gradually come up to the normal value over 1st
and 2nd January. Minor MUF depressions are still possible on
1st January, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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