[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 14 issued 2339 UT on 13 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 14 10:39:39 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0520UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: not available
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN not available not available not available
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 flare from an unnumbered region (S10E76) at 13/0520.
A type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 450 km/s
was observed accompanying a ~C5 flare probably from region 2227
(S04W71) at around 13/2200 UT. Any ejecta are likely to be directed
too far west to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed declined
from around 600 km/s to around 500 km/s. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22212212
Cocos Island 4 22112111
Darwin 7 22222213
Townsville 7 23212222
Learmonth 6 22122222
Alice Springs 6 22212212
Norfolk Island 6 12212222
Culgoora 7 23212222
Gingin 6 22222212
Camden 7 23212222
Canberra 5 22112112
Hobart 7 23212212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 9 23214212
Casey 34 56633224
Mawson 34 35434365
Davis 28 34545244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg not available
Planetary not available
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg n/a
Planetary n/a 2232 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Dec 8 Quiet
16 Dec 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet across the
Australian region on 13-Dec, with periods to storm levels in
the Antarctic. Mostly quiet conditions conditions are expected
for the next 3 days across the Australian region, with conditions
remaining more active at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic
E were observed in the southern region. Near predicted to slightly
enhanced MUFs are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 263000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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