[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 12 10:30:36 EST 2014 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Dec             13 Dec             14 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest 
flare was a 3.8 from active region 2234(N04E02) at 11/0856UT. 
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days. The 
solar wind speed ranged from around 480 km/s to 380 km/s over 
the last 24 hours. IMF Bz varied between +6/-4 nT. A solar sector 
boundary change has just occurred, expect an associated increase 
in solar wind speed to around 500 km/s and prolonged periods 
with a slightly negative IMF Bz component. On 13 December expect 
the solar wind to increase to just over 600 km/s due to a coronal 
hole moving into a geoeffective location on the solar disc.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11100122
      Cocos Island         3   11110122
      Darwin               6   21211123
      Townsville           5   21211122
      Learmonth            4   12110122
      Alice Springs        3   20100122
      Norfolk Island       2   10100122
      Culgoora             2   10100122
      Gingin               2   11000122
      Camden               4   2-110122
      Canberra             2   10000022
      Hobart               3   21100122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   10000021
      Casey               10   33321223
      Mawson               9   32212233
      Davis               10   33322222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2112 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Dec    12    Unsettled
13 Dec    18    Active
14 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet magnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region during the UT day, 11 December. Today, 12 December, expect 
mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated periods of 
Active levels at higher latitudes. On 13 December expect a slight 
increase in activity with possible isolated cases of Minor Storm 
periods at higher latitudes. Followed by a gradual return to 
Quiet levels on 14 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: High latitude disturbances likely on 13-Dec.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Dec   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values
13 Dec    75    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian region with daytime enhancements at Cocos Island 
and some minor enhancements in the northern Australian region 
during local night. Also observed isolated cases of sporadic 
E in the NSW region. Expect similar conditions to prevail today, 
12 December, however, on 13 December expect mild depressions 
in the mid to southern Australian regions returning to near predicted 
MUFs on 14 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    95300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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