[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 08 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 9 10:30:41 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 145/99 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the largest event being a C2 from region 2222 (S19W91). The solar
wind speed has reduced slightly to around 700 km/s. The IMF Bz
component varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to continue declining over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 32223323
Cocos Island 8 22223321
Darwin 11 32223323
Townsville 10 32223322
Learmonth 12 32233323
Alice Springs 11 32223323
Norfolk Island 9 32223222
Culgoora 10 32223223
Gingin 13 32233333
Camden 11 32233223
Canberra 11 32233223
Hobart 14 33333323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 21 33345432
Casey 38 56644333
Mawson 35 45434653
Davis 41 44454742
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 80 (Active)
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 96 (Minor storm)
Canberra 113 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24 4223 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 7 December
and is current for 7-9 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet
to unsettled over the Australian region during the last 24 hours,
with conditions reaching storm levels in the Antarctic. Unsettled
periods are expected to continue over the Australian region on
9-Dec, with activity declining during 10-11 Dec as the solar
wind speed decreases.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: High latitude disturbances possible on 9-Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 8 December
and is current for 8-9 Dec. Moderate daytime MUF depressions
were observed in the southern Australian region on 8-Dec, with
other areas returning to near monthly predicted values. Occasional
periods of disturbance are possible in southern Australian and
Antarctic regions on 9-Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 726 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 263000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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